The Cumulative Impact Model (CIM) shows the expected population growth within the City and its impact on housing, accommodation and services. It is designed to assess and understand the combined effects of multiple construction and development projects on regional infrastructure, services, and communities.
The CIM rationale highlights the workforce demand needed to support the City’s project pipeline. Each initiative relies on a mix of residential and FIFO workers for construction and operational phases. For every residential worker, an estimated 0.83 additional indirect workers are required to deliver essential services, including commercial, education, and health support. Residential workers often contribute further by bringing their families to the community. This population growth subsequently drives increased demand for housing, accommodation, health services, education, and utilities.
The model was developed in partnership with Pilbara Development Commission and Regional Development Australia and in collaboration with Chamber of Minerals and Energy (CME). CME supported the project by assisting the team with collecting and verifying major project data. This data was supported through publicly available government reports and sources.
The CIM employs two scenarios: (1) the ‘Under Construction & Approved Projects Scenario’, which includes projects confirmed to proceed, and (2) the ‘Full Known Projects Scenario’, encompassing all projects, including those in planning and feasibility stages as known in January 2024. In each scenario, it shows expected population growth with the ‘Under Construction & Approved Projects Scenario’ representing the lower end of the range and the ‘Full Known Projects Scenario’ representing the top end of the range.
Based on these population increase estimation, additional demand for housing, accommodation, health services, education, and utilities were estimated through multipliers, official government ratios and actual usage rates.
Key findings of the Cumulative impact include:
- The population is expected to increase from about 22,500 in Q1 2023 to between 29,500 and 32,000 by Q1 of 2026.
- The City will require between:
- 4,800 and 5,300 additional accommodations by Q1 2025
- 650 and 2,100 additional houses by 2030
- The City will by 2028 require between:
- 9 and 28 additional hospital beds
- 2 and 6 additional general practitioners
- 4 and 14 additional police officers by 2028
- 20 and 65 additional primary school teachers
- 10 and 30 additional secondary school teachers
- 25 and 78 childcare educators
- The City will consume between 5.8 and 16.1 additional GWh of electricity (per year) by 2028.
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